According to an abstract presented at the European Multidisciplinary Cancer Conference, the prostate-specific antigen test (PSA) which has been used by physicians to diagnose and monitor prostate cancer may also present doctors with the opportunity to predict the long-term risk of developing the disease and possibly dying from it.
This retrospective study collected data from blood samples gathered from the Copenhagen City Heart Study, an original prospective study that began in the 1980s and involved over 4,500 men. Researchers were able to follow the men and determine whether they developed prostate cancer thanks to the Danish Health Registries.
Their study showed that:
- Of the men with a baseline PSA value less than 2 ng/ml, 90 percent had still not developed prostate cancer 30 years later
- Of the men with a baseline PSA value of 10 ng/ml or higher, 75 percent had developed prostate cancer by the time they reached 80 years of age.
The conclusion is that a baseline PSA test may be a good idea for men between the ages of 40-45 as a means of perhaps curbing overdiagnosis and overtreatment of prostate cancer.
Source
Orsted D et al. "Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population." European Journal of Cancer 2011; 47: Abstract 7100.
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